Published: November 01, 2009 11:28 pm      

More snow predicted than in recent years

JOHNSTOWN — Put the snow blower on the garden tractor and prop the shovel by the back door.

For those who have grown complacent over winter weather of recent years, this year may prompt many to dust off the skies and tune up the snowmobile.

The weather during the next four months in central and western Pennsylvania is expected to be normal.

Translation: It could be much more intense than what we’ve grown used to, long-term weather forecasters say.

Temperatures will be slightly colder and there could be significantly more snow than has fallen in the region in recent years.

That normal could mean as much as

100 inches of snow during the winter of 2009-2010, up from the 67 inches the Johnstown area received last year, said Eric Wilhelm, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather in State College.

“It’s not going to be exceptionally snowy or anything unusual,” he said. “But it will seem that way because we haven’t had much snow on average over the past few years.”

In terms of temperature, the region could see the mercury fall lower than normal at times then spike.

“On average, when you look at the whole winter, it could be just a little bit cooler than normal,” Wilhelm said.

He bases the predictions on a weakening El Nino, the warming of waters in the eastern Pacific.

“We expect it’s weakening and will result in several severe storms to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states,” he said.

Michael Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is predicting below-average temperatures this winter across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic region from southern Texas to southern Pennsylvania.

The problem is Johnstown, central Pennsylvania and northward, where long-term weather prediction is a tough call, he said.

“The Northeast is sort of a no man’s land,” Halpert said.

If precipitation increases as predicted, a degree or two could decide if we get out the umbrellas or the snow shovels.

Playing a key role in weather in this region is the North Atlantic oscillation, which controls strength and direction of westerly winds and storm paths across North America.

“We’re not sure what drives it or what controls it,” Halpert said. “You get very subtle shifts in the jet stream and it (weather) can go either way.”

Indications are snowfalls may be returning to normal, say the longtime weather forecasters who cater to farmers and those who follow moon planting charts.

Tucked in among hints on tree care and egg incubation times, the editors of Blum’s Farmers and Planters Almanac give broad sweeping predictions calling for a wet or snowy winter.

The Harris Farmer’s Almanac, which boasts its inspiration from the original Harris Almanac of 1692, predicts below-normal temperatures and higher-than-normal precipitation for December.

January is listed as normal for both while February could see a jump in precipitation and a drop in temperatures.

The 2010 Farmers’ Almanac is calling for below-normal temperatures across three-fourths of the nation.

Severe cold could envelop the area east of the Continental Divide to just west of the Appalachian Mountains, which may impact Pennsylvania.

Talk to old-timers, and while they may draw a blank when asked about the North Atlantic oscillation, odds are they’ll suggest looking at the wooly worm crossing the sidewalk or the location of the pine cones in the trees in the backyard.

Wooly worms, actually caterpillars, have sections of black hairs at each end and a section of brown-orange hairs in the middle.

Legend is, the wider the black bands, the harder the winter.

But then what about those with brown bands in the midsection, or those two nearly white wooly worms spotted in the Johnstown area last week?

As for the trees, legend has it if pine cones are high on the tree in the fall it will be a mild winter. The lower they are, the harder the months of December, January and February.

This method causes a person to question what winter will be like when the pine cones on his trees are low while those on his neighbor’s trees are high.

While old-time weather prediction methods may make good conversation, trained weather forecasters scoff at talk of wooly worms and pine cones and encourage the public to do the same.

“A lot of these are myths. There is quite a bit of science behind (modern) long range forecasting,” Wilhelm said. “We’re getting better at it.”